中国的制造未来是麻烦吗？
在最近的NFPA年度会议上，我渴望听到著名的地缘政治分析师彼得·齐汉（Peter Ziehan），以及他对俄罗斯入侵乌克兰的看法。齐汉（Ziehan）一直根据他的国家的可怕社会人口统计数据来预测普京多年来的侵略性，这表明一个国家缓慢地崩溃了。
但是，我从谈话中得到的是，他对他对中国未来的看法确实令人惊讶。Ziehan谈到了该国的“一个儿童政策”，这是毛泽东在20世纪后期的创作。这个概念是推迟看起来像是一种可怕的人口结构，看起来最终将吞噬这个国家。（同样，美国害怕一波年轻，饥饿的中国劳动，这将使我们所有的制造业工作。）但是，今天，在该政策被正式删除七年后，其后果令人着迷且残酷。
According to Ziehan, data from January 2020 showed that the Chinese population was already the fastest aging society in human history.
“They were already past the point of even theoretical population replacement,” he said. “With this data, we know that China will cease to exist at some point in the century. And in the best-case scenario, there’ll be half as many Chinese in the year 2100 as there are now.”
What’s more, as the country has released more data from its 10-year census, it appears they over-counted their population by more than 100 million people. Ziehan said that means China will hit 50% of its current population level by 2050.
Ziehan also had plenty to say about Taiwan and the thought that China may invade this island nation that it sees as its birthright. But he didn’t paint a rosy picture there, either.
“假设中国能够征服台湾和did. The U.S. doesn’t get involved. Japan doesn’t get involved … well then what? People like to point out the semiconductor FAT facilities. Well, you don’t get software engineers who work for six figures to now work as slave labor in someone else’s plant,” he said. “The Chinese lack the technical expertise that built or operate those facilities themselves. Otherwise, they would already have them. We know that the Chinese have no problem building things. And all of the design work isn’t done in Taiwan. It’s done here.”
He also stressed that the Chinese Navy, while huge in terms of number of vessels, has limits. Ziehan said that less than 10% of its vessels can sail more than 1,000 miles from the coast — and that assumes “they’re going in a straight line at low speed and no one’s shooting at them.” They can’t get to the Indian Ocean basin. And 80% of the oil China uses is imported and 80% of that comes from the Persian Gulf. So, in a hot war scenario, whether it’s the Americans, the Japanese, the Taiwanese, the Filipinos, the Vietnamese, or the Indians, Ziehan believes that someone will put a couple of boats in the Indian Ocean and cut the energy line.
“Three months later, all the trucks in China stop,” he explained. “Three months after that, the lights go out. And since agriculture is an industrialized sector, six months after that, China has a famine that kills half its population. The Chinese know this. That’s why they haven’t acted, even though they probably have had the military edge for 15 years.”
他的最后一个重要观点是关于中国的Covid-19疫苗，他说，这是基于天花中的死病毒，这是一种“ 50年前的顶级技术”，但今天并非如此。据报道，该疫苗在预防死亡方面只有55％的效果，这是在出现α，三角洲和Omicron变体之前。
Ziehan强调，这就是为什么该国不敢退缩的原因，以及即使发现少量案件，即使在发现少数案件之后，城市或地区也如此巨大的镇压。将其加入该国已经摇摇欲坠的人口统计数据中，情况开始看起来更加可怕。我们要想知道：在未来几个月和几年中，这对中国制造和生产意味着什么？观看将非常有趣。
Paul J. Heney – VP, Editorial Director
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